Decoding climate narratives during French presidential election

To study climate narratives in the context of the French election campaign, which was disrupted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its consequences for energy transition. To understand how discourses, key actors, and controversies evolve online, in order to inform ambitious climate policies.

Challenges

• Analyze key actors and narratives influencing public climate discourse
• Identify narratives gaining popularity (weak signals) and map the global landscape of climate conversation in France

Solutions

• Use hybrid methods combining statistical approach, algorithmic analysis, and comparative politics to study opinion dynamics
• Collect extensive cross-platform data (Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, YouTube, TikTok, Instagram) to avoid echo chambers
• Deploy a qualitative-quantitative approach to extract meaning and insights from massive data
• Implement the methodology of "narrative cocoons" to evaluate the public value of narratives and the influence of actors, which is a methodological response in social data to the challenge of evaluating the compared weight of narratives, too often defined broadly and imprecisely, either as themes or as components of a diffuse cultural aura. The "cocoon" consists of a set of narrative elements (themes, words, hashtags, images, etc.) shared by user panels, communities, and their leaders. We propose not only to finely identify actors who support and propagate certain ideas but also to track the structural position evolutions of narratives in the public space through the adhesion of new actors, dissidence or unexpected endorsements.

Methodology

• Mapping of actors and identification of mobilized communities in the conversation
• Analysis of circulating narratives and their evolution over time
• Evaluation of narrative performance and actor influence involved
• Identification of consensus zones and emerging pro-climate cultural communities

Results

• In-depth analysis of climate narratives in the context of a disrupted election
• Highlighting key actors and emerging discourses on social media (e.g. "Cycling revolition," "Train promotion," "Sobriety")
• Evaluation of community resonance strength and their extent of influence
• Mapping of fertile zones of ecological consensus and identification of ideas, arguments, and imaginaries unique to these zones

The study is not publicly available.